As the US-China rivalry continues to reshape global alignments, an emerging feature of today’s multipolar world is the rise of middle powers pursuing strategic autonomy. Among the most sophisticated practitioners of this balancing act are Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Rather than aligning rigidly with Washington or Beijing, both countries are leveraging relationships on both sides of the divide to maximize their national interests—economically, technologically, and diplomatically.
In many ways, this form of geopolitical hedging is becoming a defining strategy for states seeking flexibility in a fragmenting world order. Neither Turkey nor the UAE wishes to become a US client state. Nor do they aim to be absorbed into China’s strategic orbit. Instead, their leaders are crafting multi-directional foreign policies that enhance bargaining power with both powers and secure greater global influence.
In this article, we explore how Turkey and the UAE are navigating the deepening US-China rivalry, the strategies they are using to balance competing pressures, and what this balancing means for the evolving global diplomatic landscape.
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Strategic Autonomy as Core Foreign Policy
At the heart of both Turkey’s and the UAE’s foreign policies is a shared drive toward strategic autonomy—a determination to maintain room for maneuver between the United States and China.
For Turkey, this is framed through its identity as an independent regional power with historic grievances toward both the West and great powers generally. Although a NATO member, Turkey’s relationship with Washington has been strained over issues such as US support for Kurdish forces in Syria and Turkey’s 2019 purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems—a decision that drew US sanctions and sparked tensions within NATO.
Yet despite these frictions, Turkey remains deeply embedded in Western security structures while pursuing deeper economic ties with China. Belt & Road-linked investments flow through Turkish infrastructure, and China is now among Turkey’s top trade partners. President Erdoğan’s government is positioning Turkey as a vital energy corridor between Asia and Europe, courting both Chinese investment and Western energy companies.
For the UAE, the pursuit of strategic autonomy is equally deliberate. While long considered a close US security partner, the UAE has diversified its global relationships, including deepening ties with China across trade, technology, and investment. Yet it remains under the US security umbrella, hosting American forces and maintaining robust defense ties with Washington.
This balancing act is yielding dividends. Both Turkey and the UAE have significantly enhanced their leverage in the global system, able to draw economic and security benefits from both camps without falling fully into either’s sphere of influence.
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Economic Hedging and Investment Diplomacy
Both countries are also adept at economic hedging—diversifying partnerships to maximize investment and growth opportunities amid the geopolitical rivalry.
Turkey is an important participant in China’s Belt & Road Initiative, with Chinese investments in rail corridors, logistics hubs, and energy infrastructure. China’s trade with Turkey has expanded dramatically over the past decade, especially in sectors such as machinery, electronics, and telecoms.
At the same time, Turkey is economically anchored to European markets through its Customs Union with the EU. US-Turkey trade remains significant, particularly in defense and aviation. By maintaining economic ties with both East and West, Turkey preserves strategic flexibility—even amid rising global fragmentation.
The UAE’s strategy is even more advanced. It has emerged as a leading player in AI, digital infrastructure, and green energy, attracting massive Chinese investment in tech hubs, AI research, and smart city development. Chinese firms have a strong presence in UAE ports, logistics, and energy projects.
Yet the UAE remains deeply linked to Western finance. Its sovereign wealth funds are major players in US and European markets. And while Chinese tech giants are welcome, UAE leadership also courts US tech companies and fosters close ties with Silicon Valley.
This investment diplomacy—where both Turkey and the UAE use their sovereign wealth funds and national champions to play across US and China markets—has become a core element of their balancing strategies. It allows them to hedge against potential disruptions while benefiting from competing global capital flows.
Security and Intelligence Calculations
When it comes to security and intelligence, both countries must tread even more carefully.
Turkey, despite NATO membership, has pursued an increasingly independent defense policy. Its acquisition of Russian S-400 systems demonstrated its willingness to challenge US preferences. China is watching closely, seeing potential openings for future defense cooperation—though Turkey so far remains cautious about deepening military ties with Beijing.
At the same time, Turkey maintains an active NATO role and is expanding partnerships with European powers, balancing its complex defense posture across multiple axes.
The UAE’s calculations are similarly nuanced. It remains heavily reliant on US defense guarantees, purchasing advanced US aircraft and missile systems. Yet the UAE is also building cyber and surveillance partnerships with China—sparking concerns in Washington about potential dual-use technology transfer.
Behind the scenes, both countries conduct intelligence cooperation with multiple players. For the UAE, this includes joint operations with Western intelligence while exploring cyber collaborations with China and other Asian powers. For Turkey, intelligence ties reflect its complex regional ambitions—balancing roles in the Middle East, Central Asia, and Europe.
The result is an increasingly sophisticated balancing game, where security imperatives are weighed constantly against economic opportunities and geopolitical risks.
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The Future of Middle Power Hedging in a Fragmenting World Order
As US-China competition accelerates, many middle powers are studying the Turkey and UAE models as templates for future diplomatic flexibility.
Both countries demonstrate how states can extract leverage from great power competition without becoming overly beholden to either side. Yet this path is not without risk. Overplaying the balance could trigger backlash from either Washington or Beijing—particularly if red lines are crossed in tech transfer, defense cooperation, or intelligence sharing.
Still, as more countries seek strategic hedging, the experience of Turkey and the UAE is instructive. Other actors—Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Vietnam, among others—are closely watching how these middle powers navigate the emerging landscape.
In an era of fluid alignments, strategic ambiguity, and competing global visions, the art of middle power diplomacy may prove to be one of the defining skills of the next decade.